Does Serving First in Pickleball Win More? Data Reveals the Answer

Do you prefer serving first or second?

Over time, it might seem like it doesn’t make much difference. The first team gets the chance to score immediately and can even aim for a golden pickle, but they start at 0-0-2.

On the other hand, the second team needs to win a point before they can score, but they start on 0-0-1 and have the benefit of both serves.

Curious about which option gives you a better shot at winning more games? A pair of mathematicians set out to find the answer. Check out their results below!

But, before we tell you what the, ahem, nerds (said with the utmost respect) determined, let's find out what The Dink audience preferred:

Do you prefer to serve first or second?

The poll from our audience shows they like to be the aggressor from the start

Surprisingly, just a small percentage of the responders said they had no preference (13%).

But, the majority (right under 50%) said they prefer to serve first and have the chance to strike first blood on their opponents.

Now, let's see what the math tells us.

What's the right answer?

Have we been missing a key advantage in pickleball? Does serving first actually give a team a significant edge?

In singles, the advantage is obvious. But in doubles, most players don't think twice about who serves first, assuming the 0-0-2 start neutralizes any edge. So, if given the choice, would you prefer your team to serve first or second?

In tournament play, the decision is usually made by a random draw or the classic “number one or number two?” game. For recreational play, it's often determined by the park’s 'house rules' on which side serves first. But is there really an advantage?

Two pickleball enthusiasts, Miky Wright from Elizabethtown Community and Technical College and engineer William Figary, dug into the data to find out.

They built a mathematical program and ran 10,000 match simulations, discovering that in games to 11 points, the team that serves first does not have an advantage. However, the advantage becomes statistically significant in games played to 15 points.

More importantly, they concluded:

• If there’s an advantageous side of the court, always start on the ‘bad’ side—this is more important than choosing to serve or return.
• If one player is a stronger server, they should start on the right side and serve first.

Curious how to become a better server? Check out these articles:

• Turn Your Serve Into a Weapon
• 3 Ways to Make the Most Out of Your Serve by Pro Eric Roddy
• How Pickleball's Serve Rules Have Changed Over the Years
• Your Serve is Probably Illegal
• PicklePod: Why Are Your Serve Illegal with Will Howells

Of course, other variables can influence the outcome, but if you're a player who likes data-driven decisions, these insights offer some guidance.

Worst case? You can always blame a loss on the coin flip—or maybe even a light breeze.